RCEP关税减让对重庆市制造业出口的影响研究

Study on the impact of RCEP tariff concessions on Chongqing's manufacturing exports - based on the perspective of RCEP agreement

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归属院系：

经济学院（数字经济学院）

作者：

周侨伶

导师：

程天敏

导师单位：

经济学院（数字经济学院）

学位：

硕士

语种：

中文

关键词：

重庆, RCEP关税减让, 贸易引力模型, 制造业出口

摘要：

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，简称RCEP），由东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN）于2012年提出，最终于2022年得以落实。该协定涵盖了多个经济领域，旨在促进成员国间的贸易和投资自由化。其生效将使90%以上的区域内货物贸易转变为零关税，RCEP的优惠关税安排将大幅降低区域内企业的生产成本，并将以更低的价格为成员国的消费者提供更高质量的产品。在此背景下，本文聚焦RCEP中关于关税减让的规定，深入探讨减让幅度、时间表、产品覆盖范围等关键要素，并基于国际贸易的相关理论，通过ECI指数、贸易引力模型等结合重庆制造业的实际出口数据和产业结构，探究关税减免政策对重庆制造业出口所带来的可能影响，有利于更好认识RCEP关税减让在重庆制造业出口贸易中发挥的重要作用，并协助相关部门制定有效措施，对于重庆制造业的进一步发展，不仅在理论上具有重要意义，而且在现实应用中也显得尤为关键。首先，针对RCEP关税减让政策以及制造业出口贸易的相关文献进行了梳理，分析总结了关税同盟理论、价格弹性理论，？？并阐释了自由贸易区的内涵。其次，选择RCEP关税减让作为研究对象，基于2017-2022年重庆制造业出口RCEP成员国的出口贸易数据，采用文献研究、比较分析、评价指数分析的方法，运用贸易引力模型，并基于分产品类型、分时间阶段、分国别类型等角度，模拟研究了RCEP关税减让给重庆制造业产品带来的出口额的增加以及相关贸易效应。结论显示，关税与重庆制造业产品出口呈负相关关系，关税减让有助于促进制造业出口。从产品结构来看，高技术制造业产品出口受关税减让的影响与中低技术制造业相比较为显著。从国别类型来看，发达国家与发展中国家受到的影响也存在差异性。本文运用模拟评估方法分析RCEP成员国的贸易潜力，研究发现，重庆市与RCEP成员国间在制造业领域的贸易潜力正逐渐显现，这也要求重庆市未来在贸易活动上采取更加有针对性的策略。基于本文研究结果，从关税和制造业两个不同维度提出政策建议，以期对未来的贸易发展策略提供参考。

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提交日期：

2024-06-20

引用参考：

周侨伶. RCEP关税减让对重庆市制造业出口的影响研究[D]. 西南政法大学,2024.

全文附件授权许可：

知识共享许可协议-署名

  • dc.title
  • RCEP关税减让对重庆市制造业出口的影响研究
  • dc.title
  • Study on the impact of RCEP tariff concessions on Chongqing's manufacturing exports - based on the perspective of RCEP agreement
  • dc.contributor.schoolno
  • 20220254000160
  • dc.contributor.author
  • 周侨伶
  • dc.contributor.affiliation
  • 经济学院（数字经济学院）
  • dc.contributor.degree
  • 硕士
  • dc.contributor.childdegree
  • 国际商务硕士专业学位
  • dc.contributor.degreeConferringInstitution
  • 西南政法大学
  • dc.identifier.year
  • 2024
  • dc.contributor.direction
  • 国际贸易
  • dc.contributor.advisor
  • 程天敏
  • dc.contributor.advisorAffiliation
  • 经济学院（数字经济学院）
  • dc.language.iso
  • 中文
  • dc.subject
  • 重庆,RCEP关税减让,贸易引力模型,制造业出口
  • dc.subject
  • Manufacturing Export; RCEP Tariff Concessions; Trade Gravity Model; Chongqing
  • dc.description.abstract
  • 《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，简称RCEP），由东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN）于2012年提出，最终于2022年得以落实。该协定涵盖了多个经济领域，旨在促进成员国间的贸易和投资自由化。其生效将使90%以上的区域内货物贸易转变为零关税，RCEP的优惠关税安排将大幅降低区域内企业的生产成本，并将以更低的价格为成员国的消费者提供更高质量的产品。在此背景下，本文聚焦RCEP中关于关税减让的规定，深入探讨减让幅度、时间表、产品覆盖范围等关键要素，并基于国际贸易的相关理论，通过ECI指数、贸易引力模型等结合重庆制造业的实际出口数据和产业结构，探究关税减免政策对重庆制造业出口所带来的可能影响，有利于更好认识RCEP关税减让在重庆制造业出口贸易中发挥的重要作用，并协助相关部门制定有效措施，对于重庆制造业的进一步发展，不仅在理论上具有重要意义，而且在现实应用中也显得尤为关键。首先，针对RCEP关税减让政策以及制造业出口贸易的相关文献进行了梳理，分析总结了关税同盟理论、价格弹性理论，？？并阐释了自由贸易区的内涵。其次，选择RCEP关税减让作为研究对象，基于2017-2022年重庆制造业出口RCEP成员国的出口贸易数据，采用文献研究、比较分析、评价指数分析的方法，运用贸易引力模型，并基于分产品类型、分时间阶段、分国别类型等角度，模拟研究了RCEP关税减让给重庆制造业产品带来的出口额的增加以及相关贸易效应。结论显示，关税与重庆制造业产品出口呈负相关关系，关税减让有助于促进制造业出口。从产品结构来看，高技术制造业产品出口受关税减让的影响与中低技术制造业相比较为显著。从国别类型来看，发达国家与发展中国家受到的影响也存在差异性。本文运用模拟评估方法分析RCEP成员国的贸易潜力，研究发现，重庆市与RCEP成员国间在制造业领域的贸易潜力正逐渐显现，这也要求重庆市未来在贸易活动上采取更加有针对性的策略。基于本文研究结果，从关税和制造业两个不同维度提出政策建议，以期对未来的贸易发展策略提供参考。
  • dc.description.abstract
  • The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), proposed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2012, was eventually implemented in 2022. The agreement covers a wide range of economic sectors and aims to promote trade and investment liberalization among member countries. Its entry into force will shift more than 90% of intra-regional trade in goods to zero tariffs, and RCEP's preferential tariff arrangements will significantly reduce the production costs of intra-regional firms and will provide consumers in member countries with higher quality products at lower prices. In this context, this paper focuses on the provisions of RCEP on tariff concessions, in-depth discussion of the magnitude of concessions, timetable, product coverage and other key elements, and based on the relevant theories of international trade, through the ECI index, the trade gravity model, etc., combined with the Chongqing manufacturing industry's actual export data and industrial structure, to explore the possible impact of tariff concessions on the manufacturing industry of Chongqing's exports, which is conducive to better understanding the impact of RCEP tariff concessions in Chongqing. RCEP tariff concessions play an important role in the export trade of Chongqing manufacturing industry, and assist the relevant departments to formulate effective measures for the further development of Chongqing's manufacturing industry, which is not only theoretically important, but also particularly critical in the practical application.Firstly, the relevant literature on RCEP tariff concession policy and manufacturing export trade is sorted out, analyzed and summarized the theory of tariff union, the theory of price elasticity, and explained the connotation of free trade area. Secondly, the RCEP tariff concessions are selected as the research object, based on the export trade data of Chongqing's manufacturing exports to RCEP member countries from 2017 to 2022, adopting the methods of literature research, comparative analysis, and evaluation index analysis, and applying the trade gravity model, generally based on the perspectives of sub-product types, sub-time stages, and sub-country types, the simulation researched that the RCEP tariff concessions bring the increase of export value and the increase of price elasticity of the RCEP products to Chongqing's manufacturing industry. The RCEP tariff concessions to Chongqing's manufacturing products brought about by the increase in export value and related trade effects. The conclusion shows that tariffs are negatively correlated with Chongqing's manufacturing exports, and tariff concessions help promote manufacturing exports. From the viewpoint of product structure, the impact of tariff concessions on exports of high-tech manufacturing products is more significant than that of medium- and low-tech manufacturing products. From the viewpoint of country type, there are also differences in the impacts on developed and developing countries. This paper uses the simulation assessment method to analyze the trade potential of RCEP member countries, and finds that the trade potential between Chongqing and RCEP member countries in the field of manufacturing is gradually emerging, which also requires Chongqing to take more targeted strategies in future trade activities. Based on the findings of this paper, policy recommendations in two different dimensions, namely tariffs and manufacturing, are proposed to provide reference for future trade development strategies.
  • dc.date.issued
  • 2024-05-31
  • dc.date.oralDefense
  • 2024-05-19
  • dc.relation.citedreferences
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